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Typhoon Wiki · Forecast Terms

Ensemble Forecast

An ensemble forecast runs a weather model multiple times with slightly different starting conditions, producing a range of possible outcomes used to gauge forecast confidence.

Philippines› Typhoon› Wiki› Glossary› Ensemble Forecast

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Forecast Terms

Related Terms

12 in category

In Context

A tropical cyclone's forecast cone of uncertainty is built in part from ensemble forecast spread. Tightly clustered ensemble members indicate high confidence in the track, while widely scattered members signal more uncertainty.

Related Terms in Forecast Terms

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Advisory An advisory is a general term for an official weather notice highlighting an expected hazard, ranging from a specific tropical cyclone advisory to a shorter-form warning about localized conditions. Bulletin A bulletin is the formal, structured document PAGASA issues covering a tropical cyclone's current position, strength, forecast track, and wind signals in effect for specific areas. Doppler Radar Doppler radar is an advanced form of weather radar that also measures wind velocity, allowing forecasters to detect rotation and intensity changes within a storm's rainbands as it approaches. Forecast A forecast is a prediction of future weather conditions based on current atmospheric data, computer models, and forecaster analysis. Forecast Confidence Forecast confidence reflects how much agreement exists across different weather models and ensemble members regarding a storm's future track and intensity. Numerical Weather Prediction Numerical weather prediction is the general method of using mathematical models of the atmosphere, run on supercomputers, to generate forecasts, the underlying approach behind every modern weather model. Probability Forecast A probability forecast expresses the likelihood of a specific weather outcome, such as the percent chance a given area will experience damaging winds from an approaching typhoon. Radar Radar detects precipitation and its movement by sending out radio waves and measuring what bounces back, giving forecasters detailed, near real-time views of rainfall intensity once a storm is close enough to land-based radar coverage.
View all 13 terms in Forecast Terms →
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This definition is part of the azifind.com Typhoon Wiki, informed by PAGASA and the World Bank/GFDRR catastrophe risk data used across our province pages. View all Typhoon Wiki terms →