Why Camarines Sur Is Typhoon-Exposed
Camarines Sur sits at the heart of the Bicol Peninsula, bordered by Camarines Norte to the north, Albay and Sorsogon to the south, and Catanduanes across the Maqueda and Lagonoy Gulfs to the east. Its long coastline and central position along the peninsula place it directly in the path of storms tracking through the Philippine Area of Responsibility from the Pacific.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the Northwest Pacific Basin sees an average of 26.6 typhoons and tropical cyclones each year, with activity peaking between July and November, the same window Camarines Sur sees its highest storm frequency.
Source: JTWC Annual Tropical Cyclone Report.
Economic Risk from Typhoons in Camarines Sur
Modeled loss data from the World Bank's Philippines Catastrophe Risk Assessment (2018), developed with AIR Worldwide using historical and simulated storm catalogs.
On a long-term average basis, Camarines Sur is expected to incur 2.1 billion PHP per year in losses to public and private assets from typhoons and earthquakes combined. Over the next 50 years, Camarines Sur has a 40% chance of experiencing losses exceeding 30.3 billion PHP, and a 20% chance of exceeding 53.4 billion PHP.
Typhoons account for the large majority of Camarines Sur's disaster-related economic loss, roughly 8 times greater on average than losses from earthquakes.
Private Assets
402 billion PHP
90% of total asset replacement value
Public Assets
47 billion PHP
10% of total asset replacement value
Source: World Bank / GFDRR, 2018. Asset values as of 2015.
Modeled Typhoon Loss by Return Period
A return period estimates how often a loss of a given size is likely to occur. A 100-year return period means that scale of loss has roughly a 1% chance of happening in any given year.
| Exceedance Probability | Return Period | Direct Loss (PHP Billions) | % of Asset Value | Emergency Loss (PHP Billions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAL | — | 1.8 | 0.4% | 0.3 |
| 10.0% | 10 years | 3.4 | 0.7% | 0.5 |
| 3.3% | 30 years | 10.1 | 2.2% | 1.7 |
| 2.0% | 50 years | 15.6 | 3.5% | 2.6 |
| 1.0% | 100 years | 26.0 | 5.8% | 4.5 |
Emergency loss represents an estimate of the loss the national government may sustain from relief and recovery efforts, calculated as a proportion of direct loss. Source: World Bank / AIR Worldwide, 2018.
Camarines Sur vs. Neighboring Provinces
Average annual loss from typhoons and earthquakes, compared across Camarines Sur and its neighboring Bicol Region provinces.
Camarines Sur and Albay carry the highest typhoon-related average annual loss among Bicol Region provinces, consistent with their central and coastal Pacific exposure. Source: World Bank / AIR Worldwide, 2018.
Typhoon Safety Resources for Camarines Sur
General safety guidance applies to Camarines Sur residents. See PAGASA's Signal Warning System for current wind threat levels by area.
🚩 Check Your PSWS Signal
Understand what each PAGASA wind signal number means for expected impact in your area.
View Signal Warning System →🛟 General Safety Tips
Preparedness steps to take before and during a typhoon, applicable across the Philippines.
View Safety Tips →People Also Ask About Typhoons in Camarines Sur
How much does Camarines Sur lose to typhoons each year?
On a long-term average basis, Camarines Sur incurs about 1.8 billion PHP per year in direct losses to public and private assets from typhoons alone, according to World Bank and AIR Worldwide modeling. Typhoons account for roughly 88% of Camarines Sur's combined typhoon and earthquake losses.
Why is Camarines Sur so exposed to typhoons?
Camarines Sur sits at the center of the Bicol Peninsula with an extensive coastline facing the Philippine Sea and the Pacific-facing storm corridor. As the largest and most centrally located province in the region, it sees frequent direct hits and near passes from storms crossing the peninsula.
What is Camarines Sur's worst-case typhoon loss scenario?
At a 100-year return period, roughly a 1% chance in any given year, Camarines Sur could see direct typhoon losses of up to 26.0 billion PHP, equal to about 5.8% of the province's total asset replacement value.
Are typhoons or earthquakes a bigger risk in Camarines Sur?
Typhoons are the far larger risk. Camarines Sur's average annual loss from typhoons is about 8 times greater than its average annual loss from earthquakes, 1.8 billion PHP versus 0.2 billion PHP.
How does Camarines Sur compare to other Bicol provinces for typhoon risk?
Camarines Sur and Albay carry the highest typhoon-related average annual loss among Bicol Region provinces. Camarines Norte, Sorsogon, and Catanduanes see comparatively lower modeled losses.
What percentage of Camarines Sur's assets are at risk from typhoons?
Camarines Sur's total asset replacement value is about 449 billion PHP, of which 90% (402 billion PHP) is private property and 10% (47 billion PHP) is public infrastructure. At a 100-year return period, modeled typhoon losses could reach about 5.8% of that total value.
Economic risk data sourced from: World Bank, UK Aid, GFDRR, and the Philippines Department of Finance, Province Risk Profile: Camarines Sur, Philippines Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Modeling, January 2018, with technical modeling by AIR Worldwide. General typhoon information sourced from PAGASA and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. ← Back to Typhoon Hub