Why Catanduanes Is Typhoon-Exposed
Catanduanes is an island province off the eastern coast of the Bicol Region, positioned directly along the primary typhoon corridor entering the Philippines from the Northwest Pacific Basin. Its open ocean exposure, with no larger landmass to the east to absorb incoming storms, means it is frequently among the first areas in the country to experience landfall.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the Northwest Pacific Basin sees an average of 26.6 typhoons and tropical cyclones each year, with activity peaking between July and November, the same window Catanduanes sees its highest storm frequency. Historical records highlight past storms such as Freda, Sening, and Loleng as among the most destructive to have struck the province.
Source: JTWC Annual Tropical Cyclone Report; World Bank / AIR Worldwide, 2018.
Economic Risk from Typhoons in Catanduanes
Modeled loss data from the World Bank's Philippines Catastrophe Risk Assessment (2018), developed with AIR Worldwide using historical and simulated storm catalogs.
On a long-term average basis, Catanduanes is expected to incur 604 million PHP per year in losses to public and private assets from typhoons and earthquakes combined. Over the next 50 years, Catanduanes has a 40% chance of experiencing losses exceeding 8.5 billion PHP, and a 20% chance of exceeding 14.6 billion PHP.
Typhoons account for the large majority of Catanduanes's disaster-related economic loss, roughly 12 times greater on average than losses from earthquakes.
Private Assets
48 billion PHP
77% of total asset replacement value
Public Assets
14 billion PHP
23% of total asset replacement value
Source: World Bank / GFDRR, 2018. Asset values as of 2015.
Modeled Typhoon Loss by Return Period
A return period estimates how often a loss of a given size is likely to occur. A 100-year return period means that scale of loss has roughly a 1% chance of happening in any given year.
| Exceedance Probability | Return Period | Direct Loss (PHP Billions) | % of Asset Value | Emergency Loss (PHP Billions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAL | — | 0.556 | 0.9% | 0.086 |
| 10.0% | 10 years | 1.114 | 1.8% | 0.159 |
| 3.3% | 30 years | 3.095 | 5.0% | 0.531 |
| 2.0% | 50 years | 4.726 | 7.6% | 0.806 |
| 1.0% | 100 years | 8.185 | 13.2% | 1.442 |
Emergency loss represents an estimate of the loss the national government may sustain from relief and recovery efforts, calculated as a proportion of direct loss. Source: World Bank / AIR Worldwide, 2018.
Catanduanes vs. Neighboring Provinces
Average annual loss from typhoons and earthquakes, compared across Catanduanes and its neighboring Bicol Region provinces.
Despite its high typhoon exposure and frequent landfall history, Catanduanes carries the lowest typhoon-related average annual loss among the compared Bicol provinces, a reflection of its smaller asset base rather than lower storm risk. Albay and Camarines Sur carry the highest modeled losses due to greater asset concentration. Source: World Bank / AIR Worldwide, 2018.
Typhoon Safety Resources for Catanduanes
General safety guidance applies to Catanduanes residents. See PAGASA's Signal Warning System for current wind threat levels by area.
🚩 Check Your PSWS Signal
Understand what each PAGASA wind signal number means for expected impact in your area.
View Signal Warning System →🛟 General Safety Tips
Preparedness steps to take before and during a typhoon, applicable across the Philippines.
View Safety Tips →People Also Ask About Typhoons in Catanduanes
How much does Catanduanes lose to typhoons each year?
On a long-term average basis, Catanduanes incurs about 556 million PHP per year in direct losses to public and private assets from typhoons alone, according to World Bank and AIR Worldwide modeling. Typhoons account for roughly 92% of the province's combined typhoon and earthquake losses.
Why is Catanduanes so exposed to typhoons?
Catanduanes is an island province sitting directly along the primary typhoon corridor entering the Philippines from the Northwest Pacific Basin. With open ocean to its east and no larger landmass to soften incoming storms, it is often among the first parts of the country to experience typhoon landfall.
What is Catanduanes's worst-case typhoon loss scenario?
At a 100-year return period, roughly a 1% chance in any given year, Catanduanes could see direct typhoon losses of up to 8.185 billion PHP, equal to about 13.2% of the province's total asset replacement value.
Are typhoons or earthquakes a bigger risk in Catanduanes?
Typhoons are the far larger risk. Catanduanes's average annual loss from typhoons is about 12 times greater than its average annual loss from earthquakes, 556 million PHP versus 48 million PHP.
How does Catanduanes compare to other Bicol provinces for typhoon risk?
Catanduanes has the highest exposure to typhoon landfall of any Bicol province, but its modeled average annual loss is lower than Albay's or Camarines Sur's because of its smaller total asset base. Albay and Camarines Sur carry the highest modeled peso losses in the region.
What percentage of Catanduanes's assets are at risk from typhoons?
Catanduanes's total asset replacement value is about 62 billion PHP, of which 77% (48 billion PHP) is private property and 23% (14 billion PHP) is public infrastructure. At a 100-year return period, modeled typhoon losses could reach about 13.2% of that total value.
Economic risk data sourced from: World Bank, UK Aid, GFDRR, and the Philippines Department of Finance, Province Risk Profile: Catanduanes, Philippines Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Modeling, January 2018, with technical modeling by AIR Worldwide. General typhoon information sourced from PAGASA and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. ← Back to Typhoon Hub